Derek Shirley
I build the measurement behind growth decisions.
I design data systems, causal measurement, and experimentation for marketing and growth teams. The job is to see what is working, decide what to fund, and run those decisions in production.
Decision Science · Growth · Data Systems
Selected WorkGitHub (opens in a new tab)Experience
- 42% → 8%
- Unknown enrollment attribution at Lark Health after the production rebuild, on a trailing 365-day view.
- $6.9M vs $11M
- Q4 media recommendation at Dave & Buster’s versus an outside consultancy proposal.
- 43% · 22%
- Faster pricing response and higher win rate at American Diamond Logistics, during a period of 26% annual revenue growth.
01 / Selected work
01 / ProfessionalLark Health
Independent first-match classifiers, hard-coded rules, and incomplete tracking left about 42% of enrollments unresolved, so channel performance and CAC could not be trusted.
Unknown attribution fell from about 42% to 8%. For one partner population in Q4 2025, direct mail’s measured share of enrollments changed from about 4% to 38%, and the channel stayed in use instead of being retired.
02 / ProfessionalLark Health
Lifecycle activity and downstream program milestones were not connected in production measurement, including for Lark’s Medicare DPP launch.
Built production Snowflake and dbt models connecting Braze email, SMS, and push activity to downstream behavior and program milestones, and defined Marketing’s measurement path from paid acquisition through enrollment, activation, engagement, and billable milestones.
03 / ProfessionalDave & Buster’s
A Q4 media decision had to be made on a three-hour clock, while web traffic was down about 42% year over year.
Recommended $6.9M in spend against an outside proposal of about $11M. The analysis shaped CEO and CMO planning. Web analysis traced a major part of the traffic decline to weaker CTR and message resonance.
04 / ProfessionalAmerican Diamond Logistics
Field sales needed a pricing-request workflow and data contract that could win business while remaining profitable and operationally deliverable.
Response time improved 43%, win rate improved 22%, and the work contributed to a period of 26% annual revenue growth. Also helped establish the company’s first analytics function and directly managed an analyst.
All work02 / Current research
In development
Growth incrementality and allocation
Estimating which growth investments create incremental value, and where the next dollar should go when the answer is uncertain.
Independent research03 / Experience
November 2025 to present
August 2024 to November 2025
May 2023 to July 2024
January 2023 to May 2023
June 2020 to January 2023
January 2017 to March 2020
Full experience